Future Trajectory - We live in a VUCA and BANI world
I'm not sure if we will get Terminator or Idiocracy, but I feel we are seeing signs of both. We are living in exponential times. To predict future outcome is harder than ever. The range of possible scenarios is widening.
What will our future look like? Will we get Terminator, Idiocracy or The Handmaid's Tale?
I think these four topics have to be on our radar for their potential to disrupt our trajectory:
- Demographics
- Technology
- Economics
- Geopolitics
Demographic change
Global population growth is slowing fast. Many major economies are already heading into sustained population decline. This affects everything from labor availability to consumption patterns, taxation, housing markets, and geopolitical power. Immigration is also reshaping societies and cultural cohesion.
The demographic curve used to be predictable. Now itโs diverging across regions, making long-term planning harder for both governments and companies.
Economic endgame
Our economic system is being tested by our experiments in ultra-low interest rates, unhinged debt creation, re-industrialization and supply-chain rewiring and rapid technology advances. And on top of that we have structural pressures: deglobalization, uneven productivity as AI accelerates some sectors and disrupts others, and fiscal challenges driven by aging populations, rising welfare costs, and expanded defence spending.
Will the Japan carry trade unwind be the black swan to bring it all down? Or will it be the demographic shift or the new AI economy reshaping societal economics to its core? I think our economic system is both more resilient and more brittle than we may think.
Technology advancements
I think we are on the verge of a technological event horizon that will reshape our society. Hopefully mostly for good with inventions across biomedicine, defence, energy, compute/AI etc. But nonetheless with huge societal implications. Will it drive a 30% growth rate with abundance for all or will it increase the divide between the technological elite and the rest living on UBI or trying to catch up? I think a mix of both here.
Geopolitical shifts
Economics, technology, demographics all have huge impact on the geopolitical landscape. And vice versa. A new reality forces parties to rethink how they project power and secure influence. Priorities shift fast when you can achieve supremacy via advanced AI instead of projecting power via carrier groups. Control of critical resources like rare earths, semiconductors and energy place additional pressure and reshuffles priorities for states competing in this new strategic race.
Prediction is very difficult, especially if itโs about the future. - Niels Bohr (and Yogi Berra)
To navigate this I think we have to look at the material around VUCA framework (volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity) to classify uncertainties and derive key risks.
- What is volatile (fast-changing variables)
- What is uncertain (unknown outcomes or probabilities)
- What is complex (multi-layered causal chains)
- What is ambiguous (conflicting interpretations).
We should also supplement the analysis with the BANI framework (brittle, anxious, non-linear, incomprehensible) which is a rather new conceptual model by futurist Jamais Cascio. Describing the world as chaotic, fragile, and overwhelming.
- Brittle (Replaces Volatility): Systems that look strong and robust, but are actually fragile and prone to sudden, catastrophic failure under stress. They lack resilience and simply break instead of bending or absorbing shock.
- Anxious (Replaces Uncertainty): A pervasive state of fear, dread, and permanent anticipation of the next crisis. The constant flow of bad news and lack of trust in institutions leads to paralysis, risk aversion, and over-analysis, which negatively impacts decision-making.
- Non-linear (Replaces Complexity): A situation where the traditional understanding of cause-and-effect breaks down. Small actions can have disproportionately enormous, delayed, or unpredictable consequences (the "butterfly effect"), while massive efforts might yield minimal results.
- Incomprehensible (Replaces Ambiguity): A state where the sheer volume, speed, and interconnected nature of information, coupled with the non-linear causes, makes it impossible to fully grasp the situation or understand the underlying logic. The data is all there, but it exceeds human capacity to make sense of it.
Then from these findings we can use scenario planning to build multiple plausible futures, stress-test strategies, identify early warning indicators and create contingency plans.
Looking through the BANI lens with brittle systems that can collapse, the low probability-high impact events, then we see a great need for resilience over simple agility. Scenarios need to be stress-tested for black-swan events.
It's easy to get to pessimistic about the future. I do tend to visit a dark place from time to time when looking at the state of things. But, I remind myself that a lot of good stuff is also happening and that it is a privilege to live through these times and witness it all first hand.
And we must remember that in the midst of this turmoil, there is also opportunity. We must be aware of future risks and plan accordingly, but depending on your business this can be a gift that enables you to grow or overtake the competition. As the saying goes "Never waste a good crisis"
